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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd